Anticipation is everything. Thinking of Ukraine’s coming offensive, one remembers William Faulkner’s description of the anticipation of Pickett’s charge in 1863:
“It’s all now you see. Yesterday won’t be over until tomorrow and tomorrow began ten thousand years ago. For every Southern boy fourteen years old, not once but whenever he wants it, there is the instant when it’s still not yet two o’clock on that July afternoon in 1863, the brigades are in position behind the rail fence, the guns are laid and ready in the woods and the furled flags are already loosened to break out and Pickett himself with his long oiled ringlets and his hat in one hand probably and his sword in the other looking up the hill waiting for Longstreet to give the word and it’s all in the balance, it hasn’t happened yet, it hasn’t even begun yet, it not only hasn’t begun yet but there is still time for it not to begin against that position and those circumstances which made more men than Garnett and Kemper and Armistead and Wilcox look grave yet it’s going to begin, we all know that, we have come too far with too much at stake and that moment doesn’t need even a fourteen-year-old boy to think This time.” Intruder in the Dust (1948).
Zelensky’s men and the whole of his NATO allies at this writing await Zelensky’s signal to move forward to cross fortifications Putin’s men have dug for months—fortifications behind tank traps, dragons’ teeth and widely scattered, innumerable mines. Yet, with all the anticipation of moving forward across fixed fortifications (and perhaps too crossing the Dnipro River), it is not Zelensky’s men who are in Lee’s circumstances. Lee’s daring advance into Pennsylvania and ultimately a headlong movement toward General George Meade’s cannon was beset with the curse of any invading force: continuously lengthening supply lines for logistics with the movement forward while the defender’s sources of food, clothing and reinforcements by interior lines are readily at hand.
Armchair soldiers are said to discuss tactics; professional soldiers know to discuss logistics. It is Putin who is the intruder in the dust of Ukraine. For Zelensky’s men, hearth and home are near. Thus, it is Putin’s troops who have run short on supplies and ultimate purpose in a country not their own. Zelensky’s men do not need reminding their sacrifices are to protect their wives and families from the barbarian, and Russian cruelty. Losing for Ukraine means consignment of her people to concentration camps for reeducation by Russian propaganda. Or worse, placement as resisters in the ad hoc torture chambers we all saw revealed in Bucha, Izyum, and Kherson. Losing means the end of Ukraine. Winning though could mean for Ukraine, for the United States, and for NATO, creation of a new, formidable Israel-like ally at the dangerous edge of Eastern Europe. With so much promise for all of the Atlantic alliance at stake, failure cannot be an option. Not for Ukraine, not for America, and not for NATO. Ukraine’s counteroffensive must succeed.
On the night of Wednesday, May 19, just following (indeed likely in response to) Zelensky’s triumphant return by train into Kyiv from meetings in Rome, Berlin, Paris and London (picking up more arms at every stop), Putin threw 27 missiles at Kyiv. All 27 were shot down. The 27 included six of Putin’s beloved “unstoppable,” “hypersonic” Kinzhal missiles.
Ukraine’s air defenses worked because Patriot missiles manufactured by Raytheon in the United States worked, alongside layered air defenses provided by NATO taxpayers, to diminish Russia’s threatened air dominance. Importantly, the leadership of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin at the recent Ukraine Contact Group meeting at the Ramstein Air Base recognized the danger of a Ukraine made vulnerable by air defenses drained by constant Russian missile attacks.
Following the May 19 attack, the next night on Thursday, May 20, Putin threw 30 more cruise missiles against the people of Kyiv; Ukraine shot down 29 of the 30. One thinks in history of the night of August 15, 1940. Then the Luftwaffe attempted to overwhelm the RAF with air attacks and failed.
Now the iron spring is coiling for Ukraine’s offensive. The recent mud season is over. The land is able to support the heavy tanks: German Leopard 1s and Leopard 2s supplied by all the countries of Europe to lead the way to break through Russian lines; and lighter American Bradleys’ and German Marder infantry fighting vehicles to follow and carry the men and broaden the advance. Just as important will be the Ukrainian sappers and engineers to cut lanes through the thousands of mines and to bridge trenches and tank obstacles. Overhead in a combined arms movement will be NATO supplied MIG-29s to suppress Russian air interference. Importantly, the main attack even now is preceded by British supplied Storm Shadow long-range missiles reaching right into Crimea and the furthest reaches of the Donbas to destroy Russian ammunition dumps, HQs, barracks and oil storage tanks. It will be difficult. It will be stop and go. It will be often frustrating. There will be continued tragic loss of good Ukrainian men and women who profess the love of freedom and democracy as we do. We in the US and NATO above all will have to keep Ukraine’s air defenses covering the battle field supplied always. But it is all necessary to defend civilization at the border of authoritarian, anti-democratic barbarism. As Mr. Faulkner wrote, we must ourselves be prepared now “… to think This time.”
Robert P. Wise is a Northsider.
