For the last decade it’s been said that only two Democrats in Mississippi had a fighting chance of taking the Governor’s Mansion in this Republican-dominated state.
One of those, former Attorney General Jim Hood, was defeated comfortably by Tate Reeves in 2019. We’re about to find out about the other one, Brandon Presley.
Presley announced this week that he was ready to take his chances on a run for governor and forgo what almost certainly would have been an easy reelection to a fifth term on the state’s Public Service Commission.
Presley’s announcement suggests this is going to be an entertaining contest to watch.
He immediately began taking verbal jabs at Reeves, calling him a “man with zero conviction and maximum corruption.” A Reeves’ campaign surrogate, state GOP Party Chairman Frank Bordeaux, fired back that Presley was a Jim Hood acolyte “but more liberal.”
One early strategy of Presley’s is to tie Reeves to the massive welfare corruption scandal and its illegal or improper diversion of tens of millions of federal dollars to the pockets or pet causes of those closely connected to the GOP. That line of attack may not be all that effective, however, as most of what occurred fell under the watch of Reeves’ predecessor, Phil Bryant.
Reeves does have other liabilities, though. Over the years he’s alienated several other officeholders within his own party with his heavy-handed and sometimes arrogant manner — so much so that he could again face a significant primary challenger. There is also a growing dissatisfaction with him in the Delta and other parts of the state where rural hospitals are nearing insolvency, in part because of Reeves’ obstinate opposition to Medicaid expansion.
Nevertheless, Reeves has a successful election track record that can’t be denied. Ever since the former banker popped onto the political scene by winning the state treasurer’s job in 2003, he has shown himself adept at both raising campaign funds and pushing the right buttons with the electorate. He can pander with the best of them. Although that may be a character defect, it unfortunately often works, as Reeves has won five consecutive statewide races.
As the economy stands today, Reeves will also be running during a time of general public satisfaction. Unemployment is at record low levels and state surpluses at record highs. He’ll be able to take credit for income tax cuts that are phasing in, and the same with significant teacher pay raises. The main downer is the high rate of inflation, but Reeves will be able to blame that on President Biden and Democrats in Washington, with reasonable justification. All in all, unless a feared recession descends on the state, Reeves will be running in a climate that is generally good for incumbents.
In order to overcome those odds, Presley will have to energize the heavily Democratic Black vote to turn out for him, and peel off about 20% of the white vote from Reeves. The early endorsement from Bennie Thompson, Mississippi’s longest-serving and lone Black congressman, shows Presley off to a good start on covering that first hurdle. The second one will be tougher but not impossible for a politician such as Presley, who can speak to the common man of any color.
A self-described populist, Presley has sided with ratepayers over utility monopolies. He demonstrated his loyalties and his effectiveness a few years back by leading the opposition to the “clean coal” boondoggle in Kemper County. He has been the scourge of nuisance telemarketers, and the champion of bringing high-speed internet to rural areas.
He will be an underdog but a formidable one.
